South Carolina’s offensive line has spent most of the year practicing the swinging gate play without actually moving; their 33 sacks allowed on the season is a wee bit subpar, to put it mildly.  I’m not typically a fan of blasting an offensive line as a unit, but the rushing attack (3.6 yards per carry) really isn’t doing a whole lot to make me feel any better; sure, it’s not like South Carolina has much in the way of running backs, but since sack yardage counts, you have bizarre things like Stephen Garcia getting 100+ carries at a little over a yard a pop and junior RB Brian Maddox only getting three a carry.  Sure, freshman RBs Kenny Miles and Jarvis Giles did decently at 5 yards per carry apiece, but balanced against the rest of the team, it’s not going to sway too much.   There’s help on the horizon, but it didn’t really show up this year.

With that being said, WR Alshon Jeffery was a very welcome surprise for the Gamecocks.  As a true gas-pumping freshman, Jeffery emerged as the best receiving threat on the team any way you slice it, leading the team in receptions, yards, and TDs.  If anyone’s going to talk about South Carolina’s dangerous offense (and not be on some kind of mind-altering drugs), that danger begins – and ends – with Jeffery.  The rest of the offense is strictly padded-pillow routines.  On the other hand, defensive danger is real; both Eric Norwood and Cliff Matthews are pass-rushing beasts, and Norwood himself is an absolute terror; I’m of the mindset that neutralizing him is less of a possibility and more of a dream.

On Connecticut’s side, it’s about as pedestrian as you can get.  They’re Generic Bowl Team – slightly above average for their conference in most cases save for an obvious weak spot (in their case, pass defense) and a random specialty (they’re deadly at the return game, 9^th in the country in kick returns with 4 return TDs on the season).

Based on that, let’s go for some kind of wholly unimpressive result – I’ll pick Connecticut in a slight upset to the tune of 17-12.

However, it’s a bit odd to see Arkansas here.  When we last left the Razorbacks at the beginning of the season, they had to deal with a tough schedule including road games at (what we thought were) the top four SEC teams; they’d have to nearly run the table to have a shot at a bowl game.  Sure enough, that’s what they did, dropping a shootout loss to Georgia early in the season before Joe Cox went in the tank but winning the rest of their games.  Sure, the skins of South Carolina, Troy, Texas A&M, and Auburn aren’t great skins, but those teams are within Arkansas’s peer range, and going 4-1 against their peers is about as good as it gets.  With this schedule, 7-5 counts as an accomplishment, and it’s a credit to Bobby Petrino and the coaching staff that they were able to get it done against this nasty schedule.

Petrino’s teams thrive on two things: a strong-armed quarterback and a power back to provide most of the rushing attack.  Ryan Mallett fits that first description perfectly; not only do NFL scouts salivate over his 6’7”, 238-pound frame (who needs stats when you have projectables?), but the kid had a pretty decent year, too.  As he goes, so do the Razorbacks; 4 of his 5 worst performances came in losses, including all of his sub-50% completion percentage days.  As long as he was over 54%, his team won.  (His 29/7 ratio and average of 9.3 yards per attempt don’t hurt matters.

As a result, the WR corps excelled; Greg Childs led the teams in receptions, yards, and TDs.  Remarkably, of leading WRs Childs, Joe Adams, and Jarius Wright, there was only one game where one of them had over five receptions (Adams, at Alabama), which shows the amazing balance they had in the passing game all season.  Remarkably, TE DJ Williams never got on track in the passing game save against South Carolina (helped in part by a huge end-of-half reception where South Carolina just straight-up sucked at tackling); while Williams is a legitimate receiving threat in theory, it never was really capitalized on.  It’s probably more a function of having four quality receiving threats than a statement against Williams.

What about the power running game?  Well, that had some issues; the team struggled to find a consistent running threat all season, as Michael Smith never really got on track before injuries set in.  Depending on the week, any one of Broderick Green, Ronnie Wingo, or Dennis Johnson was filling in as the primary back.  Green also doubled as the end-zone back, leading the team in carries and accounting for over half the Razorback TDs on the ground.  Thank these guys for Arkansas being second in the nation in red zone conversion percentage (and being fourth in the country in TD percentage).

On the other hand, East Carolina’s managed to fly under the radar for most of the season; I imagine most people wouldn’t have expected the Pirates to end up at 9-4.  The main reason they’ve stayed off the radar is they lost to most of the decent teams they played out-of-conference, looking unimpressive in games against West Virginia, North Carolina, and Virginia Tech.  Fortunately, the rest of the season ended up in the win column (save a bizarre road loss to SMU, fueled by a punt-block TD and an interception return TD) including a tough win over Houston in the conference championship game.

Most people, when pressed to name something about East Carolina they’d actually know, will come up with QB Patrick Pinkney and RB Dominique Lindsay.   Lindsay is legitimately quality, racking up over 1,000 yards and 5TDs on the season after struggling early on (including missing a couple of games at the end of September).   Pinkney, on the other hand … well, Pinkney’s the kind of guy people know because he’s stuck around forever.  He’s a low-risk passer who has a decent completion percentage, but not a whole lot else going for him (14/10 TD/INT, 6.7 yards per attempt); on the plus side he’s not prone to huge swings, having one outstanding game (vs. UAB) balanced against a couple of stinkbombs (vs. Appalachian State, at West Virginia).  Dwayne Harris and Darryl Freeney are the WRs of note; TEs aren’t really used except as additional blockers.

The premiere matchup for this game will be Arkansas’s offense against East Carolina’s offense.  Generally speaking, the better QBs did pretty well against the Pirate D (and even the not-better QBs; seriously, Jarrett Brown completed 77% of his passes?), which doesn’t bode well.  With that being said, East Carolina does have the ability to completely shut down teams’ running games; it was only when teams had success in both facets did East Carolina really get into trouble.  Based on that, I’d expect Arkansas to have success against the Pirates; they probably won’t need to average much more than 3 yards per carry to get the job done, and their path for success – pass down the field, punch it in on the ground – bodes well against an East Carolina team not well-fitted to stop it.  With that being said, players abound on the East Carolina D, from DE CJ Wilson (and DT Linval Joseph) to FS Van Eskridge, CB Emanuel Davis, and LB Jeremy Chambliss.  Don’t think Arkansas’s going to run roughshod over these guys.

I haven’t mentioned the other side of the ball yet for one reason: it’s kind of unassuming.  East Carolina’s good, but not great; Arkansas’s passable and maybe good in the right game.  Whatever.  Special teams trends slightly toward East Carolina, but not enough to really break the game in their favor.

Arkansas should have the edge here, but it’s close.  East Carolina likely won’t get blown out, and I can easily see this game in a 14-10 range at halftime before Arkansas drops an early 3^rd quarter TD to effectively end the game.  Pencil in Arkansas for something like a 38-27 win.

(stats provided thanks to CFB Stats)

One of the last games of the year, the Sun Bowl has had its share of good games and good stories in recent history – Oregon rebounding from the devastating loss of Dennis Dixon to win big in 2007, Oregon State making a huge 4th quarter comeback against Missouri and memorably going for two rather than sending the game to overtime… in fact, no game in the last eleven years has been decided by more than 12 points, and only two had double digit margins. Of course, close isn’t always good, as last year’s 3-0 win by Oregon State over Pitt was a complete disaster of a game, all the way down to the 1/4 FG line, but hey that shouldn’t happen this year, right? I mean, it’s not like one team has a great defense but at the same time has been completely decimated by injuries on the offensive… oh wait. But nah, this’ll be a good game! We promise!

Oklahoma

The 2009 season was not a kind one for the Oklahoma Sooners. Already having lost All-American TE Jermaine Gresham in the offseason, Heisman QB Sam Bradford suffered a shoulder injury in the second half of week 1 that effectively ended his college career, as he briefly returned only to have it re-aggravated in the first quarter of the Red River Rivalry. The Sooner defense picked up the slack for much of the early season, even in losses, holding Texas to their second-lowest points total of the season, and only three times all year did the opposition break 20 points against this unit, with the Texas Tech game being a 41 point blip on the radar as a tribute to Mike Leach’s genius. (For those who just watched Nebraska shut out Arizona while holding the Wildcats to 36 total yards until their final drive, realize that Leach’s offense scored 31 against that same defense in what was by far their worst outing of the season. Great move, getting rid of him.)

Indeed, when we go to the stat sheet, we quickly see that Oklahoma is 7th in the nation in both scoring and total defense, 8th against the run, and 22nd against the pass which is pretty good considering the style of offenses run in the Big 12 (plus BYU on the schedule); the defensive pass efficiency is 9th. This defense is outstanding at all positions, particularly linebacker where Travis Lewis leads the team in tackles and Ryan Reynolds’ return from a midseason injury last year has clearly reinvigorated the unit. One does wonder what the 2008 season would have been like for Oklahoma had the defense played even close to this good. Surprisingly just three Sooners made the all-conference first team defense (Gerald McCoy, Lewis, and Dominique Franks) although another three made the second team.

This is contrasted by an offense that placed just two skill position players on the second team offense ( DeMarco Murray, Ryan Broyles) and lineman Trent Williams was the lone Sooner of the conference first team offense. Landry Jones’ struggles at QB will take a lot of blame for that, but the fact is also that OU’s offensive line has been brutalized often by opposing defenses. Indeed, Bradford was repeatedly hit by BYU, not known as a physical defense, and pocket pressure was a season-long issue for the offense. In a loss to Texas in which the defense played very well and Jones played as well as you could ask at the time, the offense was held to -16 yards on the ground, with big losses from sacks and no real gains in the running game to offset that. I’m not even that interested in the stats, as OU blew out some of the creampuffs on their schedule to pad those, but in conference losses against Texas, Nebraska, and Texas Tech, this unit scored a total of 29 points.

Stanford

Stanford is quite the opposite. Behind Toby Gerhart, a Heisman finalist at RB, the Cardinal boast the nation’s #11 rushing offense, and at least nine of the teams above them are either midmajors, run the option, or both. Stanford runs a straight ahead, physical attack featuring the #2 yardage running back in the nation, and tops in rushing touchdowns. The Cardinal are 10th in scoring and 13th in total yardage. Freshman QB Andrew Luck has had a respectable season, doing enough to keep defenses from stacking up too much against the ground attack, with his primary target Ryan Whalen hauling in 861 yards for the season. Beware Toby Gerhart throwing the ball as well, with a 581 passer rating on the year, absolutely devastating opposing secondaries… okay, he’s thrown one pass. Got it in the end zone though. Along with Gerhart, lineman Chris Marinelli was named to the all-conference’s first team offense, and TE Jim Dray and lineman Chase Beeler received second team honors.

Unfortunately, the Cardinals are a bit softer on the defensive side. Coming in at #66 in scoring and #85 in total yardage, thanks largely to the nation’s #105 pass defense, the defense has been the culprit in three of the Cardinal’s four losses. In each of these conference losses, the offense scored at least 28 points, and every time it wasn’t enough to offset a poor defensive effort. Even in some wins the defense looked bad, such as a 51-42 near-comeback by Oregon, or a 45-38 shootout against Notre Dame. It may not be surprising that not a single Cardinal player was named to the all-conference defense.

What to Expect

Well, don’t look at me! In November, Stanford followed huge wins over Oregon and USC with a completely unexpected loss to Cal, then survived a shootout with a Notre Dame squad led by a lame-duck coach. That same month, Oklahoma beat Texas A&M and rival Oklahoma State by a combined 92-10, but lost to Nebraska and Texas Tech by a combined 51-16. Frankly I have no idea what kind of performance to expect from either team in this one, let alone how the two are going to compete against each other on the field.

All I can say is that this is a bowl game, and one of these is a Bob Stoops team.

Pick: (heads) Stanford

Missouri

The Missouri Tigers were expected to suck hard after losing Chase Daniel, Jeremy Maclin, and pretty much everybody except Derrick Washington from the 2008 offense. I took Illinois in week 1 of my pick’em league and was shocked as Missouri not only won the game, but did so a lot more comfortably than any of Daniel’s squads did. (2009 ended up being a surprising year for both of those teams, in very different ways) A tough stretch in October brought this team down to more of the level we might have expected in a rebuilding year, although certainly a loss to Robert Griffin-less Baylor was a huge surprise. Since falling to 5-4, the Tigers have won their last three although against questionable opposition.

Gabbert isn’t exactly doing what Chase Daniel did his last two seasons, but he is completing 60% of his passes to the tune of 275 ypg and a 23-7 ratio to lead the #12 passing offense in the NCAA. By far his favorite target has been Danario Alexander, who averages 137 ypg receiving and has caught 13 touchdowns. Mizzou’s next-leading receiver, Jared Perry, has about half those totals.

Defensively Missouri is very average in both scoring and yardage defense, and with this offense they’ll take that. Sean Weatherspoon is the standout middle linebacker who has made first team all-conference in two consecutive seasons, and he’ll obviously be a big factor in trying to defend Navy’s triple option.

If it comes down to it, kicker Grant Ressel was first-team all conference in a league with some pretty good kickers, making an outstanding 24 of 25 FG tries and all 38 of his PATs. But unlike during the Maclin years, Missouri does not have a touchdown from a kickoff return nor from a punt return.

Navy

Two years after his departure, Navy is still running Paul Johnson’s base offense with great results. The Midshipment started the season with a trip to Ohio State and were in position to send the game to overtime when Ricky Dobbs threw an interception on the pivotal two-point conversion which was returned for a Buckeye score in a 31-27 loss. At the time, I felt like the Midshipment should have run the midline option as a called QB iso as the Buckeyes hadn’t shown any ability to stop this play all game. In overtime, with offensive possessions starting at the 25 and with this offense… who knows? Certainly not us, and with a tough opening schedule that also included Pitt, Navy started out 1-2. Since then, the Middies have won eight of ten including a sweep of the Commander in Chief’s trophy, a win over ACC foe Wake Forest, and a huge win over Notre Dame, the program’s second victory over the Irish in three seasons.

The Midshipment are rather the opposite of the Tigers, with the nation’s #4 rushing offense (272 ypg) and all the way down at #120, the passing offense. Scoring is average at #60, but with the 6th-highest time of possession in the country, the effect of this is better than you might expect. The Middies rank #21 in scoring defense, and part of that can be attributed to just keeping the ball away from the other team.

QB Ricky Dobbs is the focal point of this offense. As its leading rusher, he keeps on just under half of the plays and has scored 24 of its 40 rushing TDs. Vince Murray is his top choice for the give, carrying for about 13 attempts a game and 71 yards. Marcus Curry and Alexander Teich round out the heart of the running attack, carrying about 6 times per game apiece for another 80 yards in all.

The 21st-ranked scoring defense is anchored by a pair of senior linebackers, with Ross Pospisil leading the team with 98 tackles. Unfortunately for this matchup, the Midshipmen are a little better against the run (#38) than they are against the pass (#47 yards, #52 efficiency) and Missouri is going to throw the ball a lot. The team has picked off 11 passes this season, just about average.

What to Expect

Honestly I’m not sure what to expect here. My suspicion is that Missouri will have difficulty with the triple option, as many teams do, but that Navy will have difficulty against Missouri’s spread passing attack as they’re not particularly dominant up front to produce the kind of game Nebraska did against Mizzou, nor do they have five or six good DBs where they can just absorb the Tigers’ four receiver sets.

As with many Navy games against solid offenses, the key factor here may simply be the Midshipmen’s ability to play keep-away, as they did so successfully against Notre Dame (at least for three quarters).

Pick: Tossup. Let’s say Missouri… go-go conference homerism!

Both teams got it done on the backs of their defense; Penn State in particular managed to finish in the top 10 nationally in total defense (buoyed in part by obliterating overmatched Akron, Syracuse, and Eastern Illinois outfits; they do get credit for shutting down a Minnesota squad that still had Eric Decker). LSU finished barely outside the top 25, helped by shutdown performances against Louisiana-Lafayette, Vanderbilt, and Tulane – their work against Auburn was a legitimate kill, though.

Quite frankly, I’m a bit surprised that Penn State was above-average offensively as well; the 400 yards per game in total offense (conference play only) seems pretty decent until you start stripping away the layers a bit.  Against teams with a winning record, that drops to 325 yards a game; against top-25 teams, that’s now 254 yards a game.  LSU is at least a bit more consistent; their 310 yards per game (yes, 310 yards; and you just thought they were bad) drops to 296 against winning teams and 207 against teams in the top 25.

Just for fun, the numbers on defense:

-          Penn State: 277 yards per game, 318 yards per game against winning teams, 325 yards per game against ranked teams

-          LSU: 325 yards per game, 341 yards per game against winning teams, 389 yards per game against ranked teams

This …well, this really isn’t that surprising if you followed either of these teams, and it doesn’t bode well for the level of play here.  Expect the ugly, and just for the fun of it, Penn State’s Collin Wagner has sucked this year (11/18 made FGs) and neither of these teams can return kickoffs to save their life.  This is a bit odd in LSU’s case, as Trindon Holliday is one of the fastest football players in the country, but it would seem that track speed doesn’t necessarily translate; he’s an exceedingly fast single-direction runner, but doesn’t handle changes of direction well.  On a kickoff return, this isn’t going to work well.

Still, these teams did manage to win 19 games somehow (from playing bad teams – oops, this is where I build the teams up, sorry).  Penn State QB Daryll Clark has finally managed to live up to expectations, completing close to 62% of his passes with a 23/10 TD/INT ratio (his 23 passing TDs led the Big Ten).  Similarly, RB Evan Royster was the best mortal RB* in the Big Ten, running for 1,100+ yards and 6 TDs on the season.  That’s more or less what we expected at the outset of the season; sure, you could probably discern that they struggled against better teams, but that’d be giving it away.  And it’s not like Clark couldn’t top 43% against ranked teams (oh wait, he couldn’t) or that Royster couldn’t bail out the offense when Clark was struggling (does a combined 30 carries for 105 yards do that?  No?), it’s that they put in a consistent effort across the season (but only if you’re name Evan Royster).

*John Clay is impressive, both in yardage and TDs.  I figured he’d get stuffed by the Miami front seven, but apparently I wasn’t even close to being right.

LSU has the same issue; RB Charles Scott was supposed to lead the Tigers to national relevance (or at least to a win over Ole Miss).   However, he spent the first part of the season dealing with aftereffects from being abducted by aliens and spent the last three games of the season injured.  Somehow, at 542 yards on the season he was LSU’s leading rusher, which says more about LSU’s running game than it does Scott; if a unit that talented wasn’t able to step up in the absence of their leading rusher, that’s a mark against the rest of the unit, and it doesn’t bode well.  On the plus side, WRs Brandon LaFell and Terrance Toliver have both been excellent, and it’s helped that QB Jordan Jefferson has been effective enough in a limited role.

However, it’s been a lack of explosiveness that’s killed LSU’s passing attack.  Neither LaFell or Toliver averaged over 14 yards per catch, and Jefferson’s 7.2 yards per attempt (even balanced against a 16/6 TD/INT ratio) screams conservative pass attack.  That works if you have a dangerous threat somewhere on the field, but that doesn’t exist in this offense; even true freshman WR Reuben Randle couldn’t get above 15 yards per completion, and TE Richard Dickson – who was a great safety valve threat – didn’t do anything of note all season.

Really, everything in this game points to a low-fi affair involving a lot of punts, a lot of bad offensive plays, and passable defense stifling what little offense happens to accidentally squirt through the mess.  Based on how things break down, either both teams should lose (if you think they’re both good) or both teams should win (if you think they both suck); since neither scenario can happen, we’ll go for a reluctant Penn State win, maybe something like 9-6 in a game that won’t do anything to cure a New Year’s Day hangover.

It’s a complete shame that all the coaching activity ended up drastically overshadowing the storylines on the field, since as far as matchups go this is pretty solid.  From a purely schematic approach, the offenses are about as dynamic as they come, especially matched up against each other; it’ll be a tough challenge for both defenses.  Of the two, Florida unquestionably has the better defense and it’s not even close; Cincinnati’s defense is average by the yardage metrics and somehow above average from a scoring perspective (mostly on beating the tar out of SE Missouri State, Syracuse, Louisville, and Miami (Ohio)).  All things considered, this was an impressive effort for a defense turning over more or less everyone.

One of the issues with having so much turnover on a defensive unit in one season is depth; as the season wore on, Cincinnati’s defense just wore down.  The Bearcats’ only games within eight points all season were not coincidentally all within the last four games of the season, and the largest margin among the conference games in that span was three points.  Cincinnati had only allowed more than 350 yards in two games through the end of October; it didn’t allow less than 369 yards in any of its last four.  It’s a little bit concerning when only two players on a 12-0 defense make either the first-team or second-team all-conference, but S Aaron Webster was one of the best DBs in the conference (as well as the most dangerous man post-interception in the conference; his 135 yards was good for 11^th in the country if you put stock into those sorts of things).

On the other hand, Florida’s defense is nearly all-everything.  They were one of the four elite defensive units all season (fittingly, the other three – Texas, Alabama, and TCU – are also in BCS bowls); among the many absurd stats they put up, their final TD/INT ratio was 7/20 with an aggregate QB rating of 93.58. <!– /* Font Definitions */ @font-face {font-family:”Cambria Math”; panose-1:0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0; mso-font-charset:1; mso-generic-font-family:roman; mso-font-format:other; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:0 0 0 0 0 0;} @font-face {font-family:Calibri; panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:swiss; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:-1610611985 1073750139 0 0 159 0;} /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-unhide:no; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:”"; margin-top:0in; margin-right:0in; margin-bottom:10.0pt; margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:”Calibri”,”sans-serif”; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:”Times New Roman”; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} .MsoChpDefault {mso-style-type:export-only; mso-default-props:yes; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:”Times New Roman”; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} .MsoPapDefault {mso-style-type:export-only; margin-bottom:10.0pt; line-height:115%;} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.0in 1.0in 1.0in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} –> – think Denard Robinson without the legs.  Their rushing defense was comparatively pedestrian, although Alabama’s 251-yard beatdown didn’t help matters.  To be fair, Florida did only place two guys on an All-whatever as well; the difference being that LB Brandon Spikes and CB Joe Haden were selected to the first-team All-American team, Haden unanimously.  That’s a minor difference, and we’re not even taking into account S Ahmad Black, phenomenal edge rusher / DUI extraordinaire DE Carlos Dunlap (or his counterpart DE Jermaine Cunningham, minus the DUI), or even LB Ryan Stamper.  This is the best defense Cincinnati’s faced all season and it’s not even close.

Cincinnati QB Tony Pike will have his work cut out for him attacking that defense.  Helping him will be all-conference WRs (and legitimate ones at that) Mardy Gilyard and Armon Binns.  Binns was quiet in the first half of the year before the Miami(OH) game; since then, he’s scored at least once in every game and 660 of his 860 total yards.  In particular, his performances against UConn and Pitt were season-defining, emerging as a legitimate deep threat with over 100 yards on the game.  Gilyard, on the other hand, knows a few things about being a gamebreaker against Pitt; sure, his 95.8 receiving yards per game was good enough for 10^th in the country, but it’s his 200+ all-purpose yards per game that make him truly dangerous.  Were he not available against Pitt, Pitt’s playing in the Sugar Bowl and this game is a whole lot less interesting.

Of course, this doesn’t happen without a good line and a rushing attack decent enough to keep defenses honest.  In case you’re curious, Isaiah Pead isn’t exactly the next coming of Mark Ingram, nor is he even Montario Hardesty 2.0.  What he is works well enough for this offense; he can’t carry a team on his own, but he can be effective at times.  Ignore him and he’ll burn you, which is precisely what happened to West Virginia (175 yards on 18 carries).  It also helps that Cincinnati has a pretty good interior line; C Chris Jurek was a first-team All-Big East selection and OGs Alex Hoffman and Jason Kelce were both second-team selections.  TE Ben Guidugli is a good enough TE; again, since TEs are typically underused in college games (especially in this offense save as a safety-valve type) it’s tough to count on him doing too much, but like everyone else on this team, he’s a threat; he rolled nearly 150 receiving yards against Illinois.

Florida’s targets and backs are a bit more noted, amazingly enough.  TE Tim Tebow has led a storied college career (and lest you think it’s not actually storied, just wait until all the books that took 20 minutes to write start coming out in a year) even though this year has been a struggle.  Even with that, “struggle” is a relative issue only; his 155.59 rating was good enough for eighth nationally.  Somehow, that’s the mantra for the entire offense – truth be told, I was surprised to see they still managed to average nearly 35 points a game.  More than anything, it feels like wasted potential somehow; Tebow was good but not transcendent, the Rainey/Demps combo were effective but not the signature of this offense (that being the three-yard Tebow Smash), Riley Cooper was the best WR as expected but that was only to the tune of about 60 yards a game, and the myriad of other fast and talented guys were there but not great.  TE Aaron Hernandez was possibly the only guy to live up to the hype, delivering with a first-team AP All-American nomination and being the only consistent receiving threat.

Give Florida’s offensive line credit, too; they helped to salvage what can charitably be called an unimpressive schematic season.  (God bless Charlie Weis for bringing “schematic” back to the public lexicon.)  Consistency on the offensive line was great all season, including C Maurkice Pouncey getting named to pretty much any All-American team you care to name.  Health and consistency helped to solve a lot of the problems associated with a subpar attack.  At its peak, Meyer’s offense is a slashing, cutting, fast nightmare to defend; I’ve used the phrase “pro-style spread” simply because if it’s going to transition to the pros, it’ll look like this.  (Half the Wildcat-type stuff is also run through this offense.)  It’s an amalgamation of more or less anything that works; that’s why it was so surprising to see so many playcalls that just didn’t work.  OC Steve Addazzio seems content to just chuck playcalling spaghetti at a wall to see what sticks; that’s fine, but once he finds a play that gets approximately 3.4 yards per play, he’ll keep calling it.  That’s fine if you have a lackluster offense, but these guys are good and handcuffing them is a complete waste of everybody’s time.

This manifested itself even worse in conference play; it’s simply staggering to think that an offense that had been so good regardless of the situations suddenly regressed to the tune of 50 yards less per game and a full 17(!) points less per in-conference game.  Quite frankly, by the stats this offense is on par with the 2006 unit that, yes, won the title exactly like this year’s unit was primed to do.  However, that group wasn’t forced to settle for three nearly as much as this unit was; of the 21 made FGs on the season, a full 20 of them came in conference play.  This unit is still dangerous, just …well, it just doesn’t feel like it’s dangerous.

Cincinnati has the opposite problem.  They’ve been running a relatively simple spread offense which has served them well, precisely because they’re maximizing their playcalling and talents.  Watching the Cincinnati offense when it’s working is a thing of beauty, and it’s adaptable to boot; witness Zach Collaros stepping in with very little issue.  There’s something refreshingly honest and effective about this attack, and I’m a big fan of it.

Still, the Cincinnati attack hasn’t seen a defense even close to Florida’s all season.  Alabama is very good at what they do, and they put together a great plan of attack to take advantage of this defense.  However, Cincinnati’s probably watching the tape from the Arkansas game: Arkansas is way closer to Cincy’s offense than Alabama’s is, and there’s enough there to piece together something.   Health shouldn’t be an issue on either end; the biggest factor on either side of this matchup is the presence of Dunlap.  That should be enough to tilt this slightly in Florida’s favor.

Similarly, Florida’s offense should be able to find enough success against the Cincinnati defense.  I’m not sold that Cincinnati’s going to have enough to be able to consistently slow them down; their best chance is for someone to go pseudo-Eric Berry (I’d guess Webster if I had to) but more importantly, if they can take away Rainey and Demps they’ll be okay on the ground.  Tennessee laid out the plan of attack against the Gators, but I don’t think Cincinnati has the horses to execute it.  I can easily see Florida getting up early and slowly pulling away.

*not really
(stats provided thanks to CFB Stats)

Arizona

Though the Wildcats finished behind both Stanford and Oregon State in the polls, some inane technicality of a tiebreaker called “head to head games” (the Big 12 conference gives a puzzled look at that one) gave Arizona the conference’s slot in this one.

If you look over Arizona’s offensive stats, you’ll find a team that ranks somewhere between 39 and 45 in the NCAA pretty much everywhere. They’re a little above average at everything, not particularly strong in any overarching area. For this program’s standards, they’ll absolutely take that. Before Sonny Dykes came to AU from Texas Tech in 2007, the Wildcats’ offense had averaged just 16 ppg to sabotage a pretty good defensive unit in 2006, leading to a 6-6 record with no bowl berth. Two years later the team won their bowl game over BYU to finish 8-5, as despite some slip on defense the offense bailed the team out to the tune of 36.6 ppg.

This year’s team lost some experience on that side of the ball, but Nick Foles has stepped up to deliver a solid performance at QB, with a 66% completion percentage and a 132 rating. Keola Antolin gradually replaced Nic Grigsby at RB around midseason, and Greg Nwoko has re-emerged as a short yardage back in recent weeks. Despite the Airraid connection, AU runs the ball about 34 times per game while passing 38, a very balanced attack that also incorporates a sophisticated screen game. The Wildcats don’t seem to have a standout receiver and five players average between 3.1 and 3.9 receptions per game, exactly what we’d expect from an offensive coordinator of Dykes’ pedigree.

Defensively, we’re also not looking at any kind of top unit here, but the Wildcats are 45th in scoring defense and 22nd in total D. They’re perhaps a little better against the run than the pass, and we’re not expecting the latter to hurt them in this particular matchup.

Not a single Wildcat was named to the Pac 10’s first team all-conference, although seven received second-team honors. Indeed, there isn’t a superstar in this bunch, really. But when you’ve got an offense derived from Mike Leach’s system and a defense under Mike Stoops, the schemes and execution are usually solid.

Nebraska

Nebraska is a team many watched take the Pasadena-bound Texas Longhorns to the limit, coming within a second of clinching perhaps the biggest upset yet in a Big 12 championship game. Indeed the Huskers are no strangers to disappointment this season, losing a road game to Virginia Tech in the closing seconds after controlling most of the game, and losing by two points to Iowa State in an eight-turnover debacle. The Huskers shouldn’t get the Holiday Bowl hangover, though… with three losses going into the conference championship, nobody would mistake this team for a top 10 squad nationally even if they had pulled off the upset. Although 9-4 is the same record they finished with a year ago, this team is vastly improved because of their defense, and they should be eager to try to hit 10 wins for the first time since 2003.

Offensively, this is a team in the bottom third of college football. They’re 80th in scoring offense and 101st in total offense… the closest thing to any good news is that they’re 68th in rushing offense with 141 ypg. That’s the work of Roy Helu, the only Husker to be named to the all-coference team (second team) on offense, and Nebraska’s best hope of moving the ball this week. Junior WR Niles Paul is the only Husker averaging over 2 catches per game, and the thing that surprised me the most about Zac Lee’s 13-10 TD-Int ratio as a QB is that he actually threw more TDs than INTs. His three picks are basically the reason they didn’t win the conference championship, and I wouldn’t be surprised to watch him blow a winnable situation against Arizona.

On the other side of the ball is a whole other story. Four Huskers were named to the all-conference first team defense, including AP Player of the Year Ndamukong Suh. With 82 tackles, 12 sacks, 10 pass breakups, 19 hurries, 3 blocked kicks, and an interception, Suh’s stats aren’t that far off from the entire defensive lines at Alabama, Florida, and Texas. So it’s no wonder that the defense ranks 2nd nationally in scoring, 9th in total yards, 10th against the run, and 3rd in pass efficiency. Keep in mind that this is despite the offense typically giving the ball right back to the other team after the defense forces a stop. So if I just said that Lee could easily blow this game on offense, it’s perhaps equally likely that Suh figures out a way to outscore Arizona by himself 9-6 (safety, touchdown, and blocking a late potential tying FG).

Nebraska also fields the Big 12’s all-conference second-team kicker, Alex Henery. Henery has connected on 83% of his FG and 100% of his PAT on the season and hit long kicks from 52, 45, and 43 yards in the conference championship game. In the low-scoring, sloppy game I’d expect in this one, Henery’s leg could be the difference.

What to Expect

Expect ugly. Although Texas Tech was the one team to have offensive success against Nebraska this year, Arizona doesn’t field that caliber of passing attack and Dykes has gone away from the pure Airraid attack. At the same time, NU’s offense has struggled in most of their conference games and the Wildcats should be able to keep this woeful unit bottled up. Three things I look for in this one are a game-changing play by Suh, late-game productivity by Helu, and Huskers’ points in the first three quarters coming from getting Henery in range until one of the former happens.

Pick: Nebraska

This year’s incarnation pairs a couple of teams who are strikingly similar; both rely on power running games and excellent defensive play (typified in part by a safety operating up in run support a large percentage of the time).  The difference lies in – go figure, knowing the teams – special teams: Virginia Tech has them, while Tennessee hasn’t had them in a while, up to and including this season.

Shockingly, Virginia Tech hasn’t been getting it done with blocked kicks this season; both the PR and KR return units have been dangerous (anyone else remember the 240 yards and TD Dyrell Roberts and David Wilson ran up against Alabama?).  That, coupled with the typical punting and kicking units (read: 9^th in the nation and 85% in FGs) gives Virginia Tech an edge they’re more or less used to at this point.

Of course, it’s tough to comprehend how much of an edge that is without having seen Tennessee’s special teams issues all season.  Not only have they not blocked a kick all season, everyone knows of at least one kick they’ve had blocked.  What they don’t know is that blocked kick was sandwiched by – guess what? – blocked kicks.  Their 62% FG rate is one of the worst among BCS teams, the punting game is solidly mediocre, and the kickoff team has only caused four touchbacks all season.  (This is helped even further by allowing nearly 23 yards per kickoff return – couple that with their 60 yards per kick and the average starting field position after a kickoff is the opponent’s 33.  Ouch.)  David Oku has been the only real bright spot on the unit, serving as the primary kick returner.

Fortunately for the Vols, special teams won’t be too many plays, and the teams are pretty even aside from that.  Montario Hardesty emerged from relative obscurity to lead Tennessee in rushing, although he was probably the second-strongest power-type RB in the SEC (behind some guy named Ingram who’s apparently kind of a big deal).  Bryce Brown – star-studded, super-hyped, possible recruiting violation depending on who you talk to – contributed in every game in some form or fashion, typically as a change-of-pace type back.  Brown looks to step into Hardesty’s shoes, but not this year; for our intents and purposes, Brown is a dangerous but likely limited runner.  Both Hardesty and Brown average between 4.5 and 5 yards per carry.

As for Virginia Tech, Ryan Williams is a power-type back who more or less dominated Virginia Tech’s offense; he gets the lion’s share of carries and yardage, and is legitimately about two steps past dangerous.  David Wilson plays the Bryce Brown to Williams’ Hardesty; he’s a similarly-hyped true freshman RB who’s serving as a change-of-pace type runner.  Both Williams and Wilson average over 5.5 yards per carry and are responsible for most of the scoring (well, Williams and his 19 TDs have a lot to say about it).

Fortunately for the Vols, Virginia Tech has Tyrod Taylor.  Taylor, like the Vick brothers before him, came in as a fairly hyped dual-threat type QB.  Like the Vick brother before him, Taylor hasn’t really matured.  As a junior, his 56% completion percentage is actually worse than his performance last year (although his 13/4 TD/INT ratio is much, much better than his 2/7 from last year).  His decision-making has improved somewhat, but the hype doesn’t equal the substance.  Taylor at this point simply needs to not lose the game for the Hokies.  As a result, WRs Jarrett Boykin and Danny Coale aren’t bad, but neither of them are particular game-breakers.  Quite frankly, they won’t get many opportunities to be game-breakers; there were only two games all season where Taylor even completed more than 15 passes.  It’s tough for Boykin, Coale, or even TE Greg Boone (most famous for running the fantastically-named Wild Turkey packages, which is VT’s answer to everyone else’s Wild-whatever package) to truly act as a game-breaker when they only touch the ball a couple of times a game.

We’ve reached the point where Jonathan Crompton isn’t a complete liability.  (As a Vol fan, I never thought I’d say that, but hey.)  The 26/12 ratio is the best he’s had by far; whether it was due to a schematic change, maturity, or some other factor, Crompton really emerged as a legitimate threat to the other team sometime around the 4^th quarter of the Auburn game.  From the Georgia game on, Crompton had a 17/4 ratio and didn’t have a game below 50% completion percentage.  Like Taylor, Crompton has a few targets in Gerald Jones, Denarius Moore, and Quintin Hancock; however, these guys all get three-plus receptions a game.  Of the three, Jones is the most likely to break a deep threat.  TE Luke Stocker is a prototypical NFL-sized prospect; he didn’t see a ton of action early on in the year, but came into his own late in the season, racking up at least 3 touches in 5 of the last 7 games (including 3 TDs).

Both these teams are rife with defensive stars.  For VT, LB Cody Grimm was making scattered appearances on various All-American teams (AP and Sports Illustrated), leading the team in tackles and tackles for loss.  CB Stephen Virgil and Rashad Carmichael played nearly all the snaps this season; that’s all well and good, but Virgil’s out with a head injury (apply textbook to head, repeat as necessary – academic casualties ho!) – he was also a corner blitz specialist.  This won’t be a huge matchup problem against the pass, but it’ll force Kam Chancellor into a similar position he was against the Yellow Jackets; it’s not a bad position to be in necessarily, but it does allow Crompton some freedom to go over the top.

On the other hand, Tennessee is down some serious LB depth.  While Rico McCoy is healthy (and leads the team in tackles), starting MLB Nick Reveiz and new starting MLB Savion Frazier are both out for the year.  That’s not a good sign against an interior rushing team.  The good news for the Vols is that DT Dan Williams and Wes Brown are both healthy; these guys are interior beasts.  In addition, expect the aforementioned Chancellor to be taking notes from All-Universe SS Eric Berry, who quite frankly was good enough to play in the NFL last year.  Enjoy the last game we’ll see from him n a college uniform; the kid is good and he’s going to be fantastic at the next level.

It’ll be a close game; based on how things break down, Virginia Tech should be a slight favorite to win this (something in the 17-14 range – FWIW, Rocky Top Talk is in agreement there); however, I can see this breaking down oddly and Tennessee’s damn near cursed in the Georgia Dome.  I can easily see something like 31-21 as a final.  Fortunately, I can put on my orange-tinted glasses and confidently predict a 28-14 Tennessee win.  There, that’s better.

(stats provided thanks to CFB Stats – I need to get better about crediting them, plus I really really want them to bring back situational stats)

Honestly, not a bowl I find particularly interesting. A very quick overview…

Georgia (7-5, 4-4)

By Bulldog standards, the 2009 campaign was a bit of a disappointment, particularly on the defensive side. Georgia ranks 40th nationally in rushing ypg allowed and 33rd against the pass, to come in 30th in total defense and a shocking 70th in scoring defense (26.4 ppg). Though the season started off with a loss, in more tpyical mid-low scoring fashion, consecutive shootout wins over South Carolina and Arkansas in weeks 2 and 3 may have signaled what was to come. Indeed, defensive problems resurfaced throughout the season – in key losses against Tennessee, Florida, and a surprising loss to Kentucky. These collapses as well as the season-long trend of being unable to come up with stops, led to the firing of defensive coordinator Willie Martinez as well as two assistants. While the program may improve from this over the next season, where is obviously some uncertainty as to how the unit will perform on Dec 28.

Offensively, UGA scores just above the nation’s average at 27.7 ppg, despite being only 73rd in total offense. The Bulldogs spent most of November without top WR AJ Green, who is reported as healthy now and expected to start in the bowl game. The timing of this injury is interesting; in games 1-5, Green accounted for 43% of UGA’s offense, and the Bulldogs were extemely one-dimensional in terms of what actually worked. In the three games Green missed, the offense has been much more balanced and perhaps in part due to that, has gone over 400 yards each game. If UGA can maintain that balance when Green returns to the lineup, this team will be much more deadly than they were when they managed just 10 points and 257 yards against Ok State.

What’s also noteworthy is that the running game has found its stride since midseason when Washaun Ealey began getting playing time. Ealey racked up 183 yards on the ground in the big win over Georgia Tech, although he has only found the end zone three times all season.

The story of the year could also be turnovers, where the Bulldogs have forced just 10 while giving up 27.

In marquee nonconference games, the Bulldogs lost their season opener against Oklahoma State 24-10, but ended the year on a positive note, beating in-state rival and ACC champions Georgia Tech 30-24.

Another thing to watch out for with UGA is that Drew Butler is leading the NCAA in punting, with a 48.8 yard average.

Texas A&M (6-6, 3-5)

While 6-6 and a losing record in conference isn’t what Aggies go into a season hoping for, 2009 has been a big step up for a team who finished 4-8 and was blown out by Baylor just a year ago. The improvements have largely come on one side of the ball – the offense. Freshman WR Uzoma Nwachukwu and converted QB Ryan Tannehill are the team’s two leading receivers, and are two of five Aggies who have caught between 31 and 44 receptions on the year. A&M is 5th in the nation in total offense and 14th in scoring offense (33.9 ppg). This has been achieved through a balanced attack – Jerrod Johnson has a QB rating of 140.7 and throws for 268 ypg, and the Aggies as a unit run for 190.4 ypg using a lot of zone read type plays. There is even a little bit of premature talk of Johnson being in the Heisman picture in 2010, but early as that may be, the fact is that he played brilliantly in the Aggies’ biggest game of the regular season and certainly led the offense to the kind of game where they could have knocked off Texas.

Of course, that last sentence should end with “if the defense could have come up with any stops, ever” and that is why the Aggies are 6-6 rather than having 9 or 10 wins. In the month of November, the Aggie offense scored 34, 10, 38, and 39 points in their four games, but the team won only once. TAMU’s defense is 104th in scoring (32.7 ppg) and 107th in total yardage. They’re a little worse against the pass (111th) than the run (88th), although that could be an artifact of the team’s tendency to get into shootouts. About the only thing this defense does well at all is forcing enough turnovers (21) to offset the number the offense gives up, which if nothing else is a lot better than what their upcoming opponent does.

What to Expect?

I think it’s clear that, when Georgia has the ball, they’re going to be moving and scoring. There’s just no indication that the A&M defense can stop anybody with even a semi-competent offense, so look for Ealey and Green in particular to have a field day here.

However, A&M’s offense is certainly capable of making this game into a shootout rather than a blowout. In the final month of the season, A&M went against two top ten defenses – Oklahoma and Texas. The Sooners completely shut down this attack, while the Aggies baffled the Texas defense in what was by far the most success any team has had against the Longhorn defenders all season. Watching that game from start to finish, I can say that there is precisely one reason for that: Jerrod Johnson played an unbelievable game. Avoiding what looked like sure sacks, making throws on the run or backpedaling, he made plays that most QBs can’t make. He allowed the offense to be successful even when things looked good for the defense. Georgia does not have a top ten defense, but it will likely take that kind of effort to put the team over the top in a game where they’re likely to give up 30+ points.

Pick: Georgia