Simulated Gameday Experience

Independence Bowl

Honestly, not a bowl I find particularly interesting. A very quick overview…

Georgia (7-5, 4-4)

By Bulldog standards, the 2009 campaign was a bit of a disappointment, particularly on the defensive side. Georgia ranks 40th nationally in rushing ypg allowed and 33rd against the pass, to come in 30th in total defense and a shocking 70th in scoring defense (26.4 ppg). Though the season started off with a loss, in more tpyical mid-low scoring fashion, consecutive shootout wins over South Carolina and Arkansas in weeks 2 and 3 may have signaled what was to come. Indeed, defensive problems resurfaced throughout the season – in key losses against Tennessee, Florida, and a surprising loss to Kentucky. These collapses as well as the season-long trend of being unable to come up with stops, led to the firing of defensive coordinator Willie Martinez as well as two assistants. While the program may improve from this over the next season, where is obviously some uncertainty as to how the unit will perform on Dec 28.

Offensively, UGA scores just above the nation’s average at 27.7 ppg, despite being only 73rd in total offense. The Bulldogs spent most of November without top WR AJ Green, who is reported as healthy now and expected to start in the bowl game. The timing of this injury is interesting; in games 1-5, Green accounted for 43% of UGA’s offense, and the Bulldogs were extemely one-dimensional in terms of what actually worked. In the three games Green missed, the offense has been much more balanced and perhaps in part due to that, has gone over 400 yards each game. If UGA can maintain that balance when Green returns to the lineup, this team will be much more deadly than they were when they managed just 10 points and 257 yards against Ok State.

What’s also noteworthy is that the running game has found its stride since midseason when Washaun Ealey began getting playing time. Ealey racked up 183 yards on the ground in the big win over Georgia Tech, although he has only found the end zone three times all season.

The story of the year could also be turnovers, where the Bulldogs have forced just 10 while giving up 27.

In marquee nonconference games, the Bulldogs lost their season opener against Oklahoma State 24-10, but ended the year on a positive note, beating in-state rival and ACC champions Georgia Tech 30-24.

Another thing to watch out for with UGA is that Drew Butler is leading the NCAA in punting, with a 48.8 yard average.

Texas A&M (6-6, 3-5)

While 6-6 and a losing record in conference isn’t what Aggies go into a season hoping for, 2009 has been a big step up for a team who finished 4-8 and was blown out by Baylor just a year ago. The improvements have largely come on one side of the ball – the offense. Freshman WR Uzoma Nwachukwu and converted QB Ryan Tannehill are the team’s two leading receivers, and are two of five Aggies who have caught between 31 and 44 receptions on the year. A&M is 5th in the nation in total offense and 14th in scoring offense (33.9 ppg). This has been achieved through a balanced attack – Jerrod Johnson has a QB rating of 140.7 and throws for 268 ypg, and the Aggies as a unit run for 190.4 ypg using a lot of zone read type plays. There is even a little bit of premature talk of Johnson being in the Heisman picture in 2010, but early as that may be, the fact is that he played brilliantly in the Aggies’ biggest game of the regular season and certainly led the offense to the kind of game where they could have knocked off Texas.

Of course, that last sentence should end with “if the defense could have come up with any stops, ever” and that is why the Aggies are 6-6 rather than having 9 or 10 wins. In the month of November, the Aggie offense scored 34, 10, 38, and 39 points in their four games, but the team won only once. TAMU’s defense is 104th in scoring (32.7 ppg) and 107th in total yardage. They’re a little worse against the pass (111th) than the run (88th), although that could be an artifact of the team’s tendency to get into shootouts. About the only thing this defense does well at all is forcing enough turnovers (21) to offset the number the offense gives up, which if nothing else is a lot better than what their upcoming opponent does.

What to Expect?

I think it’s clear that, when Georgia has the ball, they’re going to be moving and scoring. There’s just no indication that the A&M defense can stop anybody with even a semi-competent offense, so look for Ealey and Green in particular to have a field day here.

However, A&M’s offense is certainly capable of making this game into a shootout rather than a blowout. In the final month of the season, A&M went against two top ten defenses – Oklahoma and Texas. The Sooners completely shut down this attack, while the Aggies baffled the Texas defense in what was by far the most success any team has had against the Longhorn defenders all season. Watching that game from start to finish, I can say that there is precisely one reason for that: Jerrod Johnson played an unbelievable game. Avoiding what looked like sure sacks, making throws on the run or backpedaling, he made plays that most QBs can’t make. He allowed the offense to be successful even when things looked good for the defense. Georgia does not have a top ten defense, but it will likely take that kind of effort to put the team over the top in a game where they’re likely to give up 30+ points.

Pick: Georgia

Tags: Bowl previews