Simulated Gameday Experience

Look, I don’t care: this is the Peach Bowl.  This is not the Chik-Fil-A Bowl, although they do make one heck of a sandwich.  This is one of the comparatively few bowls out there that actually has some kind of history, and if it’s good enough for the Rose Bowl to stubbornly cling to an outdated tradition and be mocked roundly, well, it’s pretty easy for me to do the same.

This year’s incarnation pairs a couple of teams who are strikingly similar; both rely on power running games and excellent defensive play (typified in part by a safety operating up in run support a large percentage of the time).  The difference lies in – go figure, knowing the teams – special teams: Virginia Tech has them, while Tennessee hasn’t had them in a while, up to and including this season.

Shockingly, Virginia Tech hasn’t been getting it done with blocked kicks this season; both the PR and KR return units have been dangerous (anyone else remember the 240 yards and TD Dyrell Roberts and David Wilson ran up against Alabama?).  That, coupled with the typical punting and kicking units (read: 9^th in the nation and 85% in FGs) gives Virginia Tech an edge they’re more or less used to at this point.

Of course, it’s tough to comprehend how much of an edge that is without having seen Tennessee’s special teams issues all season.  Not only have they not blocked a kick all season, everyone knows of at least one kick they’ve had blocked.  What they don’t know is that blocked kick was sandwiched by – guess what? – blocked kicks.  Their 62% FG rate is one of the worst among BCS teams, the punting game is solidly mediocre, and the kickoff team has only caused four touchbacks all season.  (This is helped even further by allowing nearly 23 yards per kickoff return – couple that with their 60 yards per kick and the average starting field position after a kickoff is the opponent’s 33.  Ouch.)  David Oku has been the only real bright spot on the unit, serving as the primary kick returner.

Fortunately for the Vols, special teams won’t be too many plays, and the teams are pretty even aside from that.  Montario Hardesty emerged from relative obscurity to lead Tennessee in rushing, although he was probably the second-strongest power-type RB in the SEC (behind some guy named Ingram who’s apparently kind of a big deal).  Bryce Brown – star-studded, super-hyped, possible recruiting violation depending on who you talk to – contributed in every game in some form or fashion, typically as a change-of-pace type back.  Brown looks to step into Hardesty’s shoes, but not this year; for our intents and purposes, Brown is a dangerous but likely limited runner.  Both Hardesty and Brown average between 4.5 and 5 yards per carry.

As for Virginia Tech, Ryan Williams is a power-type back who more or less dominated Virginia Tech’s offense; he gets the lion’s share of carries and yardage, and is legitimately about two steps past dangerous.  David Wilson plays the Bryce Brown to Williams’ Hardesty; he’s a similarly-hyped true freshman RB who’s serving as a change-of-pace type runner.  Both Williams and Wilson average over 5.5 yards per carry and are responsible for most of the scoring (well, Williams and his 19 TDs have a lot to say about it).

Fortunately for the Vols, Virginia Tech has Tyrod Taylor.  Taylor, like the Vick brothers before him, came in as a fairly hyped dual-threat type QB.  Like the Vick brother before him, Taylor hasn’t really matured.  As a junior, his 56% completion percentage is actually worse than his performance last year (although his 13/4 TD/INT ratio is much, much better than his 2/7 from last year).  His decision-making has improved somewhat, but the hype doesn’t equal the substance.  Taylor at this point simply needs to not lose the game for the Hokies.  As a result, WRs Jarrett Boykin and Danny Coale aren’t bad, but neither of them are particular game-breakers.  Quite frankly, they won’t get many opportunities to be game-breakers; there were only two games all season where Taylor even completed more than 15 passes.  It’s tough for Boykin, Coale, or even TE Greg Boone (most famous for running the fantastically-named Wild Turkey packages, which is VT’s answer to everyone else’s Wild-whatever package) to truly act as a game-breaker when they only touch the ball a couple of times a game.

We’ve reached the point where Jonathan Crompton isn’t a complete liability.  (As a Vol fan, I never thought I’d say that, but hey.)  The 26/12 ratio is the best he’s had by far; whether it was due to a schematic change, maturity, or some other factor, Crompton really emerged as a legitimate threat to the other team sometime around the 4^th quarter of the Auburn game.  From the Georgia game on, Crompton had a 17/4 ratio and didn’t have a game below 50% completion percentage.  Like Taylor, Crompton has a few targets in Gerald Jones, Denarius Moore, and Quintin Hancock; however, these guys all get three-plus receptions a game.  Of the three, Jones is the most likely to break a deep threat.  TE Luke Stocker is a prototypical NFL-sized prospect; he didn’t see a ton of action early on in the year, but came into his own late in the season, racking up at least 3 touches in 5 of the last 7 games (including 3 TDs).

Both these teams are rife with defensive stars.  For VT, LB Cody Grimm was making scattered appearances on various All-American teams (AP and Sports Illustrated), leading the team in tackles and tackles for loss.  CB Stephen Virgil and Rashad Carmichael played nearly all the snaps this season; that’s all well and good, but Virgil’s out with a head injury (apply textbook to head, repeat as necessary – academic casualties ho!) – he was also a corner blitz specialist.  This won’t be a huge matchup problem against the pass, but it’ll force Kam Chancellor into a similar position he was against the Yellow Jackets; it’s not a bad position to be in necessarily, but it does allow Crompton some freedom to go over the top.

On the other hand, Tennessee is down some serious LB depth.  While Rico McCoy is healthy (and leads the team in tackles), starting MLB Nick Reveiz and new starting MLB Savion Frazier are both out for the year.  That’s not a good sign against an interior rushing team.  The good news for the Vols is that DT Dan Williams and Wes Brown are both healthy; these guys are interior beasts.  In addition, expect the aforementioned Chancellor to be taking notes from All-Universe SS Eric Berry, who quite frankly was good enough to play in the NFL last year.  Enjoy the last game we’ll see from him n a college uniform; the kid is good and he’s going to be fantastic at the next level.

It’ll be a close game; based on how things break down, Virginia Tech should be a slight favorite to win this (something in the 17-14 range – FWIW, Rocky Top Talk is in agreement there); however, I can see this breaking down oddly and Tennessee’s damn near cursed in the Georgia Dome.  I can easily see something like 31-21 as a final.  Fortunately, I can put on my orange-tinted glasses and confidently predict a 28-14 Tennessee win.  There, that’s better.

(stats provided thanks to CFB Stats – I need to get better about crediting them, plus I really really want them to bring back situational stats)

Tags: Bowl previews, ESS EEE CEE SUPERIORITY, Tennessee Vols