Simulated Gameday Experience

Navy 23, Notre Dame 21

This is a script we’re used to reading.  At this point, Weis’s record against winning teams since 2006 is known and it’s bad (only one win from 2006-2008).  By that standard, this season’s already been a rousing success with a convincing win over Nevada to open the season and a 20-16 squeaker over BC.  However, there’s still the pesky matter of Notre Dame’s historical dominance of Navy; it’s safe to say that Navy hasn’t seen success like this in my lifetime – and probably in yours, too.  This is Navy’s 2^nd win over the Fighting Irish in three years, and the natives are whatever’s one step past restless.

In many ways, Notre Dame’s four-game stretch to close the season was going to determine their BCS capabilities.  Of Navy, Pitt, UConn, and Stanford, Navy by all rights should’ve been one of the easier games.  However, the defense once again failed to stop Navy’s triple option attack; Navy only had one three-and-out drive and – aside from that drive – got at least 14 yards on every drive.  14 doesn’t sound like a lot, but those are all runs, and when you’re already down that’s clock that you don’t have.  More importantly, three of Navy’s first-half drives went for at least 50 yards.  Defensive breakdowns like that are death to a team, even with a quality offense.

The odd thing is that Notre Dame didn’t have a bad game on offense at all; Jimmy Clausen had perhaps his best passing game ever and Navy never had anything even resembling an answer to Golden Tate and Michael Floyd.  However, drive stagnation was an absolute killer; the only way Notre Dame ever stopped a drive was due to either success or implosion.  Success includes the three touchdowns; implosion includes a couple of missed field goals, a failed fourth-down conversion, two fumbles, an interception, and a safety.  Note the lack of “punt” anywhere in the previous sentence; Notre Dame’s offense could’ve easily had their way had they stayed out of their own way.

Part of that blame does go on Jimmy Clausen; the stat line says one INT, but he didn’t have an incredibly accurate game (I came away from this game more impressed with Tate and Floyd than with Clausen) and that one INT easily could’ve been two or possibly three.  That interception killed a 68-yard drive at the Navy 12.  After Notre Dame had cut the lead to seven and had the ball back at their own 18 with 1:48 to go – these are the things golden statue campaigns are made of – Jimmy opted for the path of least resistance to the end zone, taking consecutive sacks for a safety and turning a 21-14 potential miracle into a 23-14 coffin.

If this was just one blip on Weis’ resume, nobody would be talking about it today (other than “hey, that’s an upset”); however, we’ve got enough points to start drawing conclusions.  Notre Dame walked into South Bend yesterday with designs on 10-2 and a BCS bid that easily could’ve been theirs for the taking.  Now they’re looking at 9-3 at best (and probably something closer to 8-4 in reality), a Gator Bowl bid, and possibly Charlie Weis not being employed at the end of the season.  It seems a bit shocking, but then again Navy does have a winning record.

Tags: decided schematic advantage, weekly reflections